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Yellowstone Supervolcano – Whats the risk?

by Joe Eagle on January 12, 2009

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Many major news outlets have reported on a swarm of recent earthquake activity in Yellowstone National Park.  fears over earthquake ’swarms’ at yellowstone national park

It’s obvious that Yellowstone is volcanic in nature. That’s what creates the awesome geysers and boiling mud-pots throughout the park. But for a long time, scientists could not find the parks caldera, until one day looking at an areal photograph of the park, the parks geologist saw that the entire park was a caldera.

Yes, Yellowstone is a known super volcano that supposedly erupts about every 600,000 years. In the past, the eruptions have been so massive they have found ash from the explosion as far away as the southeastern United States. The last eruption was about 1,000 times more powerful than Mount St Helens.

One author wrote, “Imagine a pile of TNT about the size of an English county and reaching 13 kilometers into the sky, to about the height of the highest cirrus clouds, and you have some idea of what visitors to Yellowstone are shuffling around on top of.” – Bill Bryson (Park Supervolcano)

The last eruption took place about 630,000 years ago. That means it’s about 30,000 years overdue.

The most recent swarm of more than 500 earthquakes this month has some people worried. It is the largest most condensed string of earthquakes in decades, and some are worried it may be signs of bigger things to come, or may create a bigger problem down the road.

Learning about the size and power of the volcano just down the road was a little unsettling. But is there really any need for concern? Lead scientists don’t think so, but reports indicate they’re monitoring the situation closely.

What are your thoughts on the situation?

Were you aware of the size and potential strength of Yellowstone?

Are you concerned about the earthquakes?

What would you do if the volcano started to spew magma?

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{ 20 comments… read them below or add one }

1 Joe Eagle January 12, 2009 at 1:26 pm

Personally, I think the chance of an eruption in my lifetime is slim. It’s already 40,000 years overdue – whats another hundred years.

Still, something to think about.

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2 Marcus January 12, 2009 at 1:40 pm

From what I’ve heard:

It will only take a 4.0 – 5.0 magnitude earthquake to crack the surface of the caldera, that would be bad. I’m not sure how bad, but it would be. Highest they’ve recorded in the past month or so is 3.8.

I also heard that scientists in Yellowstone say an 8.0+ magnitude earthquake wouldn’t be a stretch before the end of 2009.

I have nothing to back this up with, and I’m not going to comb the web for it. God knows how a large earthquake would really effect the state of the Yellowstone caldera.

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3 Anonymous January 12, 2009 at 6:31 pm

An interesting and potentially scary comment I heard was that some media type asked the some of the lead scientists if they were going to order evacuations to everyone in a 100 mile radius. He answered with something to the effect of “No we are not to that point YET.” Maybe it was just a poor choice of words to use “Yet” but it left me thinking that they really are worried.

And it I must say it worries me that 100 miles is the bandied about evacuation range with us sitting at just over 100.

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4 Chris January 12, 2009 at 10:24 pm

I hope Yellowstone never blows. Everything would be incinerated within a 100 mile range. Beyond that everything and everyone would be buried in ash for hundreds of miles around. Rememer, this is a super volcano, one of the largest in the world and is roughly 1000 times the size of Mt. St. Helens.

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5 Anonymous1 January 12, 2009 at 11:19 pm

I think the pyroclastic blast (or flow) would be a lot larger than a 100 mile radius. I’d have to push that guesstimate out to at least 500 miles. If that thing blows it’ll be bad news for all of us.

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6 Herb Sewell January 12, 2009 at 11:37 pm

If it’s as you say then I wont worry about it, nothing we can do to stop or prevent it. I’m not going to move. I’ll take my chances that it won’t blow for a few hundred + years. Maybe we can stop it from happening by purchasing carbon credits :)

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7 po bug January 13, 2009 at 6:52 am

I think its funny that we say “people are worried” when the people who are NOT worried are the scientists.

I work in science and not worried one bit. Swarms come and go and people spend their entire lives working in this field. Yes it’s true if we start to see 4.0 or higher quakes then we take notice, but even then we not running for the hills (or Brazil in that case)

When you see the the science guys and gals running then I ‘ll pack up

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8 Bloop January 13, 2009 at 10:15 am

YNP has seen more than 70 earthquake swarms sinc e 1983, including a swarm in 1985 that lasted several months and included more than 3,000 quakes. Quakes are as common as gored German tourists in the park.

From what I’ve read, scientists believe Yellowstone will give decades worth of warnings if a major eruption is in the works, with earthquake swarms being only one of a long list of warning signs of concern.

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9 JellyBelly January 13, 2009 at 10:27 am

They said the same thing about Mount St Helens and look what happened there. The fact is, nobody can predict when this thing will blow. Nature doesn’t always give us “warning signs” to work with and it’s not outside the realm of possibilities that this thing could blow at any time. We just don’t know. And the fact is, the US hasn’t had a “major” earthquake in many years. Just don’t act all surprised when it happens.

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10 Marcus January 13, 2009 at 3:48 pm

I will be heading to Mexico the first time I see a herd of bison running south through Downtown Idaho Falls. Moose, deer, elk, wolves would work too.

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11 CR67 January 13, 2009 at 4:41 pm

You got that right! I’ll lasso me a bison and throw a saddle on his back and I’ll be good to go! Yeehaw!

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12 Bloop January 13, 2009 at 5:07 pm

Jellybelly — No, they didn’t say the same things about Mt. Saint Helens. That volcano experienced numerous earthquakes, cracked, and bulged for nearly two months before it blew on May 18, 1980. The nature of its rupture caught many by surprise, but that it was getting ready to blow did not — hence evacuation zones around the volcano, enforced for months before the eruption. There were plenty of warning signs.

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13 Marcus January 13, 2009 at 5:09 pm

Why so damn serious all the time IFT posters? Cut it out. We only have a few days to live before we all get covered in lava and volcanic ash. Live it up and laugh.

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14 CR67 January 13, 2009 at 5:59 pm

LOL
Regardless of any “signs”, if this thing goes it’ll be much more devastating than Mount St Helens, and we all saw the destruction from that baby. Yellowstone’s is much larger, I can’t even imagine the area it would wipe out if that thing were to blow. It’ll be more along the lines of Mt Vesuvius.

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15 Joe Eagle January 13, 2009 at 8:16 pm

Another excerpt from the referenced website (questioning a talking to a scientist on the matter):

… ‘And how much warning would you get if Yellowstone was going to go?’

He shrugged. ‘Nobody was around the last time it blew, so nobody knows what the warning signs are. Probably you would have swarms of earthquakes and some surface uplift and possibly some changes in the pattern of behavior of the geysers and steam vents, but nobody really knows.’

‘So it could just blow without warning?’

He nodded thoughtfully. The trouble, he explained, is that nearly all the things that would constitute warning signs already exist in some measure at Yellowstone.

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16 Joe Eagle January 13, 2009 at 8:21 pm

Here’s one more interesting piece related to Idaho:

The biggest blast in recent times was that of Krakatau in Indonesia in August 1883, which made a bang that reverberated around the world for nine days, and made water slosh as far away as the English Channel. But if you imagine the volume of ejected material from Krakatau as being about the size of a golf ball, then that from the biggest of the Yellowstone blasts would be the size of a sphere you could just about hide behind. On this scale, the Mount St Helens eruption would be no more than a pea.

The Yellowstone eruption of two million years ago put out enough ash to bury New York State to a depth of 20 metres or California to a depth of 6 metres. This was the ash that made Mike Voorhies’ fossil beds in eastern Nebraska. That blast occurred in what is now Idaho, but over millions of years, at a rate of about 2.5 centimetres a year, the Earth’s crust has travelled over it, so that today it is directly under northwest Wyoming. (The hot spot itself stays in one place, like an acetylene torch aimed at a ceiling.) In its wake it leaves the sort of rich volcanic plains that are ideal for growing potatoes, as Idaho’s farmers long ago discovered. In another two million years, geologists like to joke, Yellowstone will be producing French fries for McDonald’s and the people of Billings, Montana, will be stepping around the geysers.

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17 untwisted January 15, 2009 at 2:26 am

You guys just keep talking this thing up. With a little more information from you I’ll be able to scare what’s left of the little woman’s love of Idaho Falls clear past the Cascades.

I’ve been trying to pull it off alone for years and Yellowstone’s done it for me in a couple weeks.

I can see it now, breakfast on the beach every morning, conch and mangoes for lunch…

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18 Find Humor in Life January 15, 2009 at 6:06 pm

I’m not concerned about the volcanic lava as much as I am having the earthquake swarms stirring up the nests of jackalopes. We finally got the population of those critters down, and now it appears the nightmare may be starting all over again….

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19 Alice January 15, 2009 at 6:32 pm

Cool. I’ve always thought that a jackalope would make a great pet… since I’ve never been able to find a platypus…

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20 Tobias from Germany March 24, 2009 at 11:55 am

Regarding to the YVO- website (Yellowstone Volcano Observatory) Yellowstone is not overdue. Even about 90.000 years away from the point we might say it is overdue

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